3 Predictions for LA Galaxy's Playoff Match against Minnesota United
Playoff soccer is back.
After 22 days between rounds, the LA Galaxy will return to the pitch on Sunday, Nov. 24, to face Minnesota United in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Galaxy is coming off beating the Colorado Rapids in two games (with a combined scoreline of 9-1), while the Loons won their series over Real Salt Lake with back-to-back penalty shootout wins.
The Galaxy won’t see their levels of domination over the Rapids in Sunday’s game. Matches are now determined in 90 minutes instead of a best-of-three series. Teams across the league will become more conservative as the margin for error gets smaller in every minute that passes during a match. The winner of this match will play the Seattle Sounders in the Western Conference finals next weekend.
Here are my three predictions for this game:
The Margin of Victory: 1 goal
I am 100% expecting this game to be a snoozefest for good portions of the game.
It’s not about putting a great performance in the postseason; it’s about getting the winning result. That was the mantra for the Loons in their victory over RSL in the first round.
Minnesota deployed a 5-4-1 formation and approached both games being content with RSL having most of the ball. The Loons have pacey players on their roster who can take advantage of transition moments.
In both games against the Loons in the regular season, the Galaxy averaged 60% possession. I expect Minnesota to look to exploit the LA Galaxy on the counter - the best way to make the G’s look vulnerable. This means LA has to be patient and play within the system to avoid vulnerable moments.
In his midweek presser, Head Coach Greg Vanney told reporters that playing without patience and forcing moments would play into the hands of Minnesota.
“Being patient when we are in possessions is going to be important,” said Vanney. “A big chunk of the game is going to be emotional management as well as ball management and doing the things that can protect ourselves and then can create opportunities on the other side.”
I’m predicting we will see a more pragmatic game from both teams. The Galaxy will really have to work for their goals and also concentrate on not giving Minnesota a chance in the game. One goal feels like the right line in my prediction for the winning margin. If the Galaxy keeps the goal-scoring form they had in the Colorado series, they’ll establish themselves as the scariest team in the post season.
Calling my Shot: Joveljic to score
The matches against Minnesota United have been close affairs this season. I believe this could be the game where Dejan Joveljić plays a monumental factor. He’s not shone like his teammates Riqui Puig and Gabriel Pec in recent games, but he’s still key to the attack.
As mentioned earlier, this game will likely feel like a chess match in which both sides play conservatively. No better person to break the stalemate than the chess master Joveljić.
The Serbian has improved his hold-up play tremendously while keeping his fox-in-the-box instincts sharp. In a match that will likely see LA win the possession battle, Joveljic will be tasked to finish the limited amount of shooting opportunities he’ll get in a well-defended penalty area. Not to mention, he needs to be effective with his back-to-goal when LA is looking to break down visitors.
In eight career matches against the Loons, the Serbian has three goals and one assist. He scored in LA’s 2-2 draw in Minnesota in May this season.
Strikers leave the biggest mark in soccer games. Whether that is scoring goals or missing chances, they dictate if the story goes on or leaves wondering “what-if.” This match is where Joveljić must rise to the occasion to set LA on top and into the path of victory.
Wild Card: Emiro Garces
If the 23-year-old Colombian has a good game, LA will put up another solid defensive performance. If he struggles, the Galaxy will be extremely vulnerable, and here is why.
With Minnesota relying on transition moments to attack the Galaxy, Garces needs to be able to use his quick burst of acceleration to ensure the Loons don’t have a free run at goal. Maya Yoshida doesn’t have the speed to keep up with speedy attackers like Kelvin Yeboah, Bongokuhle Hlongwane, or Jeong Sang-bin by himself. He needs Garces to mark these players tightly inside the Galaxy’s defensive third.
The one notable trend in Garces’ playing style is his aggressiveness. It helps him put an end to touches in the final third and halt the opponents’s momentum in the attacking half. But it can also lead to fouls in risky areas and if he doesn’t calculate his defensive action well enough, attackers can blow past the quickest guy on the backline. He hasn’t been exposed much, but there are warning signs that teams could exploit this part of his game.
Keep an eye out for how the Loons attack the young Colombian defender. His physical traits add so much to the Galaxy's defense, but if he’s unable to make the right decisions at the right times, it will be detrimental to the Galaxy. At this stage of the postseason, with the top seed in the West eliminated, the Galaxy needs to avoid mistakes and play like a championship-winning side on Sunday afternoon.