Galactic Notebook: Answering early questions about the 2024 LA Galaxy
Analyzing the stats and key numbers from the Galaxy's first five to answer the biggest questions surrounding the club to start the 2024 campaign
The Galaxy sits in second place in the Western Conference through five games in MLS play with one of the most potent attacks in the league. The club is turning heads across the country with their performances in MLS and with one of the most inform strikers in the Americas.
There have been a lot of good and bad moments in these first five games but the Galaxy has yet to taste defeat this season. From a dominant 3-1 win in San Jose to an exhilarating comeback in Kansas City, the Galaxy is showing they’re a different team from years past.
I’ll be giving my answers to some of the biggest questions surrounding the team through five starting with…
Cerrillo or Brugman?
A lot has changed since Edwin Cerillo locked down Lionel Messi and Inter Miami on the opening weekend of the MLS season. The American midfielder put in a fantastic shift that night but the Galaxy’s needs have changed as the games go on.
Cerrillo’s style of play revolves around playing conservative passes and covering ground in the midfield trenches. His game is simple and dependent on Riqui Puig and Mark Delgado to be the ball progressors in the midfield trenches. On the other hand, Brugman can often break lines with his passes and holds his composure in the midfield.
“[Brugman] helps me a lot because I don’t have to drop deep to get the ball and instead I get the ball in the half-space between where it hurts [the other teams] midfielders…..that is where I can cause the most danger and you can see that in the last couple of games,” Puig told me after the victory in Kansas City.
You can see a higher proportion of touches in the attacking half for Puig when Brugman is on the field. Take a look at the graphic below:
Teams are forcing Puig to get his touches deeper on the field to prevent him from playing killer balls in the final third. Cerrillo doesn’t play line-breaking passes often and thus Puig’s only option to get the ball is to receive it in his own half. Brugman’s presence and extended passing range make it much easier for Puig to get the ball in the final third and play quick combination passes as the two midfielders have excellent chemistry together.
It will be interesting to see when Brugman will play his first game of the season. Cerrillo hasn’t put a foot wrong but he won’t be able to help the Galaxy reach their ceiling. Brugman not only will unlock Puig’s influence in the attack but he’ll provide another voice of leadership on the pitch for the Galaxy.
How will Pec perform as the season goes on?
Designated Player Gabriel Pec has played just 160 minutes through five games with the LA Galaxy. Saturday’s win in Kansas City was his first start with the Blue, White, and Gold where he played 83 minutes. This was a good sample size to see how he plays in Vanney’s system.
The Brazilan didn’t light up the pitch but wasn’t a huge liability for the Galaxy- an average performance at best. It’s not too surprising to see some disorganization as he’s still working on his full integration in the Galaxy defensive and attacking patterns. Left back Julian Aude spent the entire preseason working on defensive rotations with Diego Fagundez, now he’s trying to get used to Pec’s movements.
What I’m going to pay attention to is where Vanney will play him and for how long. As you can see on the heat map, Pec has a good amount of touches on both sides of the pitch. He was deployed as a left winger in his start against SKC but also moved to the right side at times to play as an inverted winger.
Paintsil has been most effective on the right side of the pitch meaning that Pec will likely see most of his playing time on the left wing. It’s going to be up to the Brazilian to improve and contribute to the attack when the other players are below par. If he can improve in his one-on-one duels, shot selection, and make quicker decisions in the final third, Pec will reach his potential with the LA Galaxy.
The talent is there in the Brazilian, it’s all about meshing him with Vanney’s tactical ideas and with the rest of his teammates. He is still a very raw prospect who will need time to reach his ceiling.
Is it time to worry about the defense?
Despite giving up the second-most goals in the Western Conference (9), I don’t believe it is time yet to sound the alarm on the backline. The alarm is on for set-piece defending as the Galaxy has given up five goals from dead-ball situations. But in open play, this team is very much improved.
The club ranks near the middle of the pack in non-penalty xG against (6.5), average shot distance against (19 yards out), shots on target per 90 against (5), and goals per shot against (0.09) among all MLS teams. The Galaxy finds itself among the elite in categories such as percentage of dribblers tackles (57.9) and blocks (76). The SoCal club leads the league in interceptions with 68 through five games.
The current core of John McCarthy, Miki Yamane, Maya Yoshida, Martin Caceres, and Aude have played well together as a unit and their only downside is the individual mistakes they make that lead to goals. Yamane and Aude have done well to win their individual duels out wide and the veteran center backs show their experience in the air and when defending in the box. McCarthy ranks average among goalkeepers in save percentage and post-shot xG but ranks sixth in the league with 18 saves.
When the opposition can easily carve through the Galaxy through the middle or in wide play, that’s when you sound the alarm. The backline will continue to be under a microscope for the rest of the season but mostly on defending set-pieces. You may be in a different camp but I believe the underlying numbers show the defense isn’t the problem just yet
Is Joveljic’s scoring form sustainable?
The Galaxy’s Serbian forward is making scoring goals easy. But is it easy or is this just a lucky streak? That’s going to be what Galaxy fans and MLS viewers will keep an eye on as the games keep coming for LA.
Joveljic is second in the league in shots on target per 90 (2.33), only behind D.C. United’s Christian Benteke. His average shooting distance is 10.9 yards away from goal - the shortest distance in his LA Galaxy career thus far. The Serbian leads the league with an xG of 5.6 through five games (the closest player to him is Benteke at 3.5).
Fun Fact: Joveljic’s xG of 5.6 is more than what 10 MLS teams have through 5 games.
With his growing chemistry with Puig, Paintsil being a threat on the wings, and Pec still yet to be fully unlocked, there will be a lot of different ways for Joveljic to get chances. All he needs to do is put away those chances and he’ll be one of the top scorers in the league. It’s all about being efficient in his chances and also being in the right position at the right time.
“I've talked to [Joveljic] about not running in straight lines, but coming from angles because it shows Riqui where he wants the ball. And these things are happening for him at times now more so but he's going to be the beneficiary of the pace that we have on the outside with Joe [Paintsil] and the work that's being done in the wide channels”
- Greg Vanney after the Galaxy’s 3-2 win versus SKC
Here is a link to an excellent video from my colleague Justin Ruderman of SBI Soccer and Upper 90. He did a great job looking through more of Joveljic’s numbers from this year at least last year. The stats are from matchday four but still tells the story of the Serbian’s campaign so far.