Opinion: Greg Vanney staying for the 2024 season is a massive risk
There is a ton of pressure on Vanney to lead LA back to MLS Cup contention
Greg Vanney staying as the LA Galaxy’s Head Coach is a risky move for both the club and Vanney himself. For most coaches, finishing second to last in the confrence and missing the playoffs in two of the last three years would result in being let go, but Vanney will continue to lead the Galaxy for the 2024 MLS campaign.
Vanney is in a unique situation given the various different situations that played out in 2023 such as fan boycotts and unlucky injuries that plagued the campaign. While it’s not an excuse for their poor season, no coach in the league is going to navigate all that and be successful.
In his three years with the Galaxy, LA has only made the playoffs once. His record in charge of his former club is 42W-43L-29D across all competitions and an average of 1.31 points per match in MLS regular season play - that tally is ranked 8th among 13 Western Confrence Clubs in the last three years. (St. Louis and Nashville not included).
We all know Vanney’s seat is warm heading into the 2024 season. The standards of the LA Galaxy remain high and the fanbase is craving to return to the upper echelon of MLS. Vanney’s yet to do that and it’s primarily why most of the fanbase has mixed feelings about him heading into year four of his tenure.
Let me clarify one thing first; I don’t think Vanney is a bad coach or believe he’s the problem at the LA Galaxy. I’m highlighting why the pressure is immense on Vanney for next season in terms of getting LA out of mediocrity in the standings and how he’s viewed among other coaches in the league.
If he does end up leading the Galaxy back to the promised land, then it shows that keeping faith in him paid off. But we can’t ignore and push aside that Vanney having another average season could potentially keep LA’s cycle of mediocrity going.
Vanney's first head coaching stint in Toronto was a huge success- it’s why LA wanted to hire him when he became available in 2021. He’s the only MLS manager to win the domestic treble (MLS Cup, Canadian Championship, and MLS Supporters Sheild) and rebuilt Toronto into a relevant MLS club.
During his final presser of the season, Vanney brought up his pedigree as a coach saying, “I have a ton of consistency in not only just getting to the playoffs but getting to the finals, winning a championship, I know what it takes to win this league.”
Related: Read Vanney’s quotes from 2023 Exit Interviews
He added that coaches across the league who won championships go through “outlier seasons” and LA did this year due to their key injuries during the season. But with just one playoff appearance in three years, just how long can Vanney quote his coaching resume? In the words of Janet Jackson, What have you done for me lately?
His last piece of silverware as a coach was five years ago. His last appearance in the Confrence Finals was in 2019.
Vanney’s Galaxy teams have ranked in the upper echelon of possession statistics across MLS but have yet to go through a truly dominant stretch results-wise outside of the final half of the 2022 campaign. We’ve seen glimpses of real promise throughout his time in SoCal but not enough to confidently say the Galaxy are back into MLS Cup contention.
2024 will be Vanney’s most important season as a coach to stay in charge of the most recognizable soccer franchise in the U.S. and continue to be a revered coach in the MLS landscape. He’s no longer primarily viewed as the coach who won trophies with Toronto but instead as the guy yet to get it all together in LA.
This upcoming season is the perfect scenario for Vanney - two open Designated Player spots and the club has sorted out the front office with some stability heading into the off-season. Since the appointment of Michael Stephens as Director of Scouting in April 2022, the Galaxy have hit on most of their international signings.
Following the exits of Efrain Alvarez and Javier “Chicharito” Hernadez, all the players currently on the roster are players Vanney brought in during his tenure. Heading into next season, Vanney is tasked with giving the final verdict on the new DPs the roster will be built around.
As the person in charge of the sporting side of the club, the success or failure of those decisions will fall on him. If he can turn the Galaxy around and back into MLS Cup contention in 2024, his coaching legacy in MLS will grow. If not, we might start to question if his success in Toronto was due more to the players than the system of the coach.
Before their Golden State Warriors became the dynasty we all know them as today, their superstars were mentored and developed by another coach instead of Steve Kerr. Mark Jackson coached Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green during their early years in the NBA and instilled a defense-first mentality. Jackson made the Warriors a good team that could beat anyone on their day but not into a consistently elite team (sound familiar) during his time in the bay.
It wasn’t until Kerr took the reigns as the coach and implemented a different vision to make the Warriors the best team in the NBA. Kerr was part of the reason why their core of players took that next jump in their game.
We’ve seen instances of a new coach elevating a good team into greatness. Brian Schmetzer did that with Seattle in 2016 to give the Cascadia side their first MLS Cup following the firing of Sigi Schmid. The most recent instance of this was with LAFC’s Steve Cherundolo. Following three years with Bob Bradley at the helm of the club, he was let go, and in came Cherundolo to win the MLS Cup in his first season.
The Galaxy wants to play its possession style of soccer but has yet to be elite results-wise and garner wins consistently. Vanney is yet to record three consecutive wins with the club in three seasons.
During the last three years, the Galaxy has been at its most dangerous in counter-attacking moments and taking advantage of quick transition moments when teams make mistakes.
Playing on the counter and absorbing more pressure isn’t the sexiest way to play soccer but it can get the job done. Vanney’s system prioritizes possession but as mentioned earlier, it’s yet to guarantee wins for the Galaxy.
If there was a perfect time to bring in a new coach to implement a new style of play and get his ideal players in, it’s this winter. Vanney is getting another chance to rebuild and get players that will elevate the team.
If he can’t do that and is let go during or after 2024, a new coach will inherit Greg Vanney's DPs and will have to build a new roster to complement those pieces - that’s essentially the same scenario Vanney walked into in 2021 with Chicharito and Jonathan Dos Santos.
The LA Galaxy’s quest back to MLS Cup Contention starts in 2024, there’s no doubt about the pressure that’s on Vanney to get this right. The Galaxy will look like geniuses for keeping Vanney if next season is a success or be scrutinized for keeping him if results continue to be mediocore.
With shakey, aging and injury prone centerbacks, and young, inexperienced and marauding outside backs and a pair of inconsistent goalkeepers, the defense is garbage again. Lack of muscle in the middle and bite to complement Riqui’s adventures and in-doubt form of post-injury Gastón, the midfield is questionable. Upfront rebuild is not the only problem. Need at least 12 veteran signings to turn this ship around. Revisit how Arena fixed the mess he inherited. A bunch of experienced US national team players who knew how to fight for the colors did the trick.